Mobility gets wheels
The automotive revolution is gathering pace, with all four mutually reinforcing trends – autonomous driving, shared mobility, connectivity, and electrification – showing signs of acceleration. Consumers talk more about the systems and tech embedded in cars than about horsepower, while investors have taken the wheel in shaping the mobility system in a number of countries.
However, the speed at which change occurs will ultimately define how quickly all four trends can gain a real foothold across the industry, says McKinsey. For example:
Battery cost and scale. For producers to reach parity in total cost of ownership and profitability between battery-electrified and internal-combustion-engine vehicles, the cost of batteries would need to be reduced by 25 to 40%. Lithium-ion battery production will need to increase significantly to meet the demands of millions of new xEVs.
The ability to extract value of shared mobility. Greater proliferation of shared mobility depends, in part, on the ability to broaden the addressable market. Use cases such as commuting would require a much lower price level than a typical ride-hailing offer today. This will require new offers (eg, pooling) and new technologies (eg, autonomous driving).
The consultancy reckons the personal-mobility landscape may look very different in the near future. “Value is likely to shift toward new, disruptive business models, with shared mobility and connectivity solutions potentially accounting for up to 25% of total automotive revenue in 2030,” if robo-taxis, ridesharing app adoption, shared mobility and electrified powertrains come through.
“By 2030, about 20% of value generated from classic vehicle sales might shift toward new technologies, such as xEV powertrains or autonomous-vehicle software and components. But more than 60% of revenue from disruptive business models could still be carried by traditional elements, such as the shared vehicle itself, or fleet operations.”