BMW has announced that all of its brands and model series are set to be electrified, with full-electric or plug-in hybrid drivetrains offered in addition to combustion engines. The company says its new battery-electric Mini will go into production in 2019, with the electric drivetrain built at BMW’s e-mobility centre at its Dingolfing and Landshut plants in Bavaria before being integrated into the car in the company’s Oxford facility.
The group expects electrified vehicles to account for between 15% and 25% of sales by 2025. “However, factors such as regulation, incentives and charging infrastructure will play a major role in determining the scale of electrification from market to market,” it adds.
Plug-in hybrid vehicles will play a major role in electric vehicle adoption through to 2025, after which battery electric vehicles will begin to account for the vast majority of EV sales. According to the Electric Vehicle Outlook report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the engineering complexity of plug-in hybrid platforms, their cost and dual powertrains make battery-driven vehicles more attractive in the long-term.
Bloomberg projects that one-third of cars on the road will be EVs by 2040, equivalent to 530 million EVs in total.
Electricity consumption from EVs will rise from 6TWh in 2016 to 1,800TWh by 2040. While this represents a mere 5% of projected global power consumption in 2040, the peakiness of fast-charging load profiles will need to be managed by utilities and regulators with the introduction of time-of-use rates to encourage off-peak charging. There will also need to be storage solutions at operator sites able to mitigate high power demand from the grid.
However, issues remain with charging infrastructure. The number of public EV chargers has grown significantly in the last five years, but more is required, says the report.
“Even when EVs have reached cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles, lack of home charging will be a significant barrier to adoption and will restrict EV sales from reaching 100%.”
The impact of autonomous driving will be limited in the next 10 years, though ride hailing and car sharing services will have an impact.
“We believe that autonomous vehicles will be primarily shared and will begin to replace existing human-driven shared and hailed cars starting in 2030. This will start to impact vehicle sales and increase the average distance travelled per vehicle. We expect 80% of all autonomous vehicles in shared applications to be electric by 2040 due to lower operating costs.”
Image: BMW Group