The UK will undoubtedly be economically worse-off outside of the EU whatever the trade scenario – the only question is how much will the economy deteriorate post-Brexit?
In fact, the no-deal Brexit favoured by government hardliners would shrink the economy by 4.7% over 10 years. That would amount to £105 billon, equivalent to a per capita £1,585, according to Rand Corporation, which has carried out an analysis of the different kinds of Brexit.
And given the shoddy tactics of the UK negotiating team to date, who can rule that out?
Most Brexiters have failed to understand continental Europe’s stance, believing that the 27 EU members are only concerned with protecting sales of German cars, French cheese and Italian prosecco etc to Brits. Rand Corporation has not made that mistake.
“The EU is likely to engage with the UK during Brexit negotiations, but may see benefit in adopting a zero-sum game approach,” it explains. “Europe’s top political priority is to discourage other member states from withdrawing.”
It adds, “A UK strategy of trying to pick apart European unity is unlikely to work since it is in the best interests of all EU member states to work together.”
Image: Rand Corporation